Imagine a perfect world? I have an AI agent that knows my business well. It’s getting real time input from sales, from customers, it makes amazing decisions. We get a large order? We need to ramp up production of our widgets. We have an order pipeline of xx widgets and we know over time that yy% will close. Let’s place a larger order with a supplier overseas.
The next day, we have an election and tariffs are announced on imported parts. We react immediately, cancel the order, start the process to expand a local factory. We place ads to hire workers and order equipment. Things are looking good for our business and our factory will be up and running in a few months.
The next week we find out the tariffs weren’t really being enforced, so they’re paused. Our AI agent re-places our large order for imported parts and tried to cancel the factory expansion. Of course, it calculates the costs of both sides before deciding, and perhaps consults with me on other uses of our local factory.
How many times can we do this? Or rather, how many times would we let an AI agent keep adjusting our business?
To be fair, humans might do the same thing and over-react, but mostly we become hesitant with unexpected news. That slowness can be an asset. We often need time to think and come to a decision. Lots of our decisions aren’t always based on hard facts, and a lot of business isn’t necessarily fact driven either. We often put our thumb on the scales when making decisions because there isn’t a clear path based on just data.
Things can get worse when we collaborate. I used to run real-time reports for an importing company, and we found that executives would print a report, get busy, and after minutes (or hours), discuss the report with someone in a department. However, their numbers rarely matched because the reports were printed at different times. At first they lost trust in the system because the same report on the same day had different numbers. Even when we added a “print” or an “as of” time, the reports were too annoying to users to be helpful because the numbers didn’t match.
Real time isn’t what most of us want. Except in the Olympics. There we want the photo finish right away.
But not in all sports. A review is good. In the NFL, I’ve come to like instant reply. It’s gotten better/faster and often gives us the right answer. Not always, but often. It’s better, arguably, then just real-time humans.
Real-time decisions and reactions can be good in some cases. Adjusting machinery, vehicles, electricity, etc. where we need too-quick-for-humans decisions based on data is a good place for real time data. Lots of business decisions we make aren’t the places where we really need real-time insights. Our human brains just don’t work that fast.
Steve Jones
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